The Cancer Drug Development Forum (CDDF) held a live webinar on “Bayesian Approaches in Oncology Drug Development: Introduction and Motivations” on 14 May at 17:00 CET. Conducted by Purvi Prajapati (Eli Lilly) and Natasha Mulhemann (Cytel).
The lectures were followed by a 25-minute panel discussion moderated by Eva Skovlund (CDDF) and Axel Glasmacher (CDDF).
Key Takeaways – Bayesian Methods in Drug Development
- Bayesian methods are increasingly applied in drug development, including in oncology, due to their flexibility and decision-oriented framework.
- The session provided a high-level introduction to Bayesian principles, highlighting both advantages and potential limitations of the approach.
- Key motivations for using Bayesian methods include the ability to directly estimate the probability of treatment effects, improved interpretability for decision-making, and systematic incorporation of prior knowledge.
- Central Bayesian concepts were introduced, with particular emphasis on the critical role of prior specification and its impact on posterior inferences.
- Bayesian methods offer valuable tools for clinical trial design and analysis. Integrating Bayesian thinking early in the planning process can enhance trial efficiency and decision-making. Omitting Bayesian approaches from the outset may represent a missed opportunity.
EDUCATIONAL RESOURCES SUGGESTED BY THE SPEAKERS
- Bayesian Clinical Trials: A series of articles on Bayesian statistics written by industry and FDA authors, designed for MDs and other clinical development professionals without a statistical or mathematical background: https://link.springer.com/collections/fjjadhccij
- “Bernoulli’s Fallacy: Statistical Illogic and the Crisis of Modern Science” by Aubrey Clayton: This book introduces Bayesian thinking for a general audience
- 2025 UCSF-Stanford CERSI Bayesian Thinking in Clinical Research Course: https://pharm.ucsf.edu/cersi/2025bayesian
- “Doing Bayesian Data Analysis: A Tutorial with R, JAGS, and Stan” by John K. Kruschke: This book is indicated for an audience that is willing to deep dive in some math and R
To watch the recording of the webinar, click the link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5R_KemHPJtk&t=10s
For speaker presentations, visit the CDDF website: https://cddf.org/events/past-events/cddf-meetings-2025/cddf-live-webinar-introduction-to-the-bayesian-framework/